斯托克代尔悖论

《基业常青》及《从优秀到卓越》的作者吉姆·柯林斯认为，转型成功企业的管理队伍都显示出极大的心理承受能力。一方面，他们平静地接受了残酷的现实；另一方面，他们对自己坚信不移，相信无论道路如何险阻，前途一定是光明的。我们把这种耐力称之为“斯托克代尔悖论”。

他们能够如此，很大程度上是因为他们兼顾斯托克代尔悖论的两个方面，不让任何一方占上风。如果你可以采取这个双重系统，你就可以极大地增加作出正确决策的机会，并最终找到一个简单而又深刻的道理，作出真正了不起的抉择。一旦掌握了这个简单而统一的理念，你就离不断转变取得突破性进展不远了。

此外，在企业早期积累阶段，牢记斯托克代尔悖论同样重要：“我们并未打算在圣诞节之前就实现突破，但是如果我们能够持续不断地朝正确的方向推，我们最终会实现突破的。”勇敢地面对残酷的现实可以帮助你发现飞轮转动所需采取的步骤，这些步骤是显而易见的，虽然不容易做到。对最终的结果充满信心，能帮助你度过数月乃至若干年的积累阶段。

在遭遇困境之后，还能剥离大环境以保持理性且正确的思考问题的方式，对于个人或公司来说都是一件很有意义的事情。总之，当你诚实而努力，想要确定所面临的现实情况，那样的话，在十字路口总能找到前进的方向。

经典小档案：

斯托克代尔悖论：坚持你一定会成功的信念，同时，要面对现实中最残忍的事实，不论有多大的困难，不论它们是什么。

要点：对前途充满信心，但又直面残酷的现实。

Comments

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